Page 16 - 《近代史研究》2021第一期

Modern Chinese History Studies

No. 1đ2021

The Publicity of the Sino-Japanese Secret Treaties before the May Fourth Movement
…………………………………………………………………………………… Tang Qihua̵ 4̶
During the First World WarđJapan dominated East Asia and signed a series of secret treaties with China. After the warđ
at the Paris Peace ConferenceđChina and Japan were fighting for the issue of Shandong. The Beijing government had planned
to publicize all the Sino-Japanese secret treaties and let the Powers to ruleđbut the Chinese delegation in Paris only publicized
the treaties related to Shandong. Meanwhileđthe South-North negotiation was held in Shanghai and the group of Beijing
officials advocating peaceful unification collaborated with the representatives of the Southđso they wanted to force the group of
Beijing officials advocating military unification to publicize all the Sino-Japanese secret treaties to uncover the close relationship
between the Anhui Clique of warlords and Japan. Howeverđthe most sensitive two contracts of weapon purchase were not
publicized and the controversy of the Britain and the United States with Japan ended up with a compromise among them．

The ObservationđAnalysis and Prediction of the First World War by the Members of the
European Affairs Study Group …………………………………………… Guo Shuanglin̵ 18̶
After the breakout of the First World Warđsome of the Nationalist Party members following Huang Xing or agreeing with his
standpoint of reconciliation in national affairs organized the European Affairs Study Group in 1914. While opposing Yuan Shikai’
s restoration of the imperial systemđthey systematically observed and analyzed the First World War. They thought that the war
was sparked by the Sarajevo Incidentđbut the fundamental reason was the formation of and the conflicts between the two military
blocsđthe Allied Powers and the Central Powers. They pointed out that this war was actually the challenge of the rising German
Empire to the British Empiređwhich had dominated the world for several decades. They estimated that if the war was ended
within a yearđthe Central Powers would winđbut if the war lasted for two years or longerđthen the Allied Powers would win.
Moreoverđthey anticipated that the prolongation of the war would trigger revolution or independence of colonies in some of the
belligerent nationsđand after the war six major powers in the world would reduce to three powers. Some members analyzed the
strength of the countries in the two warring blocs and predicted that the Central Powers would eventually win. Others analyzed
Japan’s motives for declaring war on Germany and criticized the policy of “partial neutrality”of the Beijing government. In
shortđthe research on the First World War by the European Affairs Study Group had made some substantial results．

The Japanese Investigation of the Communist Party of China and Their Ｒeaction during the
Chinese War of Ｒesistance against Japanese Aggression …………………… Qi Jianmin̵ 34̶
In the all-out War of Ｒesistance against the Japanese Aggressionđthe Communist Party of China ̵ CPC̶ led the
Chinese people to fight against the Japanese armyđso the Japanese regarded the CPC as their “real enemies． ”The
Japanese investigated the CPC and their armies on a wide scale regarding the relationship between the CPC and the Soviet
Unionđthe future of the United Frontđthe anti-Japanese activities of the CPC in North China and so on． Howeverđthe
Japanese army had the tradition of “Military Firstđ”so they lacked the systematic strategic analysis of information． In
particularđthe Japanese army selectively used information in order to invade China with force． Therefoređalthough they
discovered the power of the CPC and their political workđand predicted the anti-Japanese fighting led by the CPC would
accelerate the development of the Chinese societyđthe Japanese army as invaders did not understand the CPC and the
Chinese society sufficientlyđnor realized that the CPC had become more mature during the War of Ｒesistance． The plan of
the Japanese army to establish a regime in North China was not suitable for the local reality and incompatible with the
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